Wheat

Committee Members

Erick DeWolf, Kansas State University (Chair)
Pierce Paul, The Ohio State University (Co-chair)
Carl Bradley, University of Kentucky
Andrew Friskop, North Dakota State University
Kyle Imhoff, Pennsylvania State University
Thomas Isakeit, Texas A&M University
Uta McKelvy, Montana State University
Tim Murray, Washington State University (Retired)
Madalyn Shires, South Dakota State University

Collaborator: Dr. Xianming Chen, USDA-ARS Pullman, Washington

Progress

The Wheat Research Area Committee has successfully developed a suite of models that will help us estimate the risk of multiple wheat diseases and environmental stress events that threaten wheat production in the US nearly every year. These models are based on a dataset of over 1,200 observations, which provides a rich resource for model development and testing. Key successes this past year included:

Revision of models estimating the risk of regional stripe rust outbreaks based on overwintering environments in the Southern US;
Revision of models used to simulate wheat growth (Figure 1);
Revision of models estimating the risk of severe stripe rust based on local weather conditions (Figure 2);
Testing of these models in replicated research plots in seven states;
The deployment of these models via the NPMTI Wheat Dashboard covering more than 30 states east of the Rocky Mountains.

Current Projects

The Wheat Research Area Committee (Wheat RAC) also has active modeling projects for wheat leaf rust and Parastagonospora leaf blotch. These models leverage the infrastructure developed by the Wheat Research Area Committee to estimate the risk of severe leaf rust based on local weather conditions and the resistance level of the wheat variety planted. These models are currently being tested and verified prior to public deployment. We have projects investigating the emerging risk of fungicide resistance in wheat pathogens and the potential that fungicide resistance will negatively influence disease management in the US.

We are also expanding the stripe rust model to account for the effects of high temperatures on disease outbreaks. Stripe rust development is often slowed by periods of high temperatures (> 70 F). Preliminary results indicate that additional features should help to further improve the accuracy of predictions for stripe rust in the US. The Wheat RAC has also partnered with USDA scientists in Pullman, Washington, to adapt the stripe rust models for use in the wheat production regions of the Pacific Northwest. This includes testing and refining the models based on observations of stripe rust outbreaks collected over the past 40 years.

Figure 1. Model of wheat growth developed by the NPMTI Wheat Research Area and deployed via the NPMTI Wheat Dashboard.

Figure 2. Model estimating the risk of severe stripe rust based on local weather conditions deployed via the NPMTI Wheat Dashboard.

Future Plans

The wheat RAC will continue to develop and refine models for stripe rust, leaf rust, and Parastagonospora leaf blotch over the next year. The wheat growth model stripe rust forecasting tools are already available to the public, and plans are in place to add models for leaf rust and leaf blotch over the next 12 months. We will also expand our modeling effort to consider additional foliar diseases, including tan spot and Zymoseptoria tritici blotch. Our partnerships with the University of Kentucky and North Dakota State University will help accelerate these modeling efforts. We also plan to partner with the Crop Protection Network to provide additional tools for growers across the US to use in the near future.